The aluminum industry is a major source of industrial emissions in China, accounting for approximately 64% of emissions within the non-ferrous metals sector and about 3.5% of total national emissions. Globally, the aluminum sector contributes around 2% of total anthropogenic emissions.
Aluminum is widely used across multiple critical sectors and is expected to remain one of the most versatile and in-demand metals. Driven by rapid industrialization, urbanization, and emerging demand from the low-carbon transition, its applications continue to expand. Global aluminum demand is projected to reach 119.5 Mt by 2030—an increase of nearly 40% compared to 2020—with China accounting for roughly two-thirds of the incremental demand. The sector’s decarbonization strategy centers on three key areas: power decarbonization, reducing direct greenhouse gas emissions, and scaling up circularity. To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, an estimated 456 Mt of emissions reductions (around 24%) will come from expanded use of recycled aluminum. In addition, low-carbon electricity and the deployment of near-zero-emission refining and smelting technologies could contribute approximately 651 Mt and 232 Mt of emissions reductions, respectively.
Carbon Accounting and Low-carbon Standards
Product-level carbon accounting standards enable aluminum producers and downstream companies to better understand the carbon footprint of their products, take targeted actions to reduce emissions across the value chain, and strengthen upstream–downstream collaboration on decarbonization. The credibility and consistency of these methodologies are also critical to ensuring transparency and comparability of emissions data, and to supporting the low-carbon transition of the aluminum sector and its value chain.
In collaboration with partners, we have developed the
Methodology for Carbon Footprint Accounting and Reporting of Aluminum Products — Based on International Practices, This work provides a comprehensive comparison of mainstream product-level carbon accounting and reporting methods, identifies areas of common ground, and incorporates extensive input from industry stakeholders through consultations and working group discussions. The methodology is designed to ensure that accounting approaches, key indicators, and practical applications are well aligned with the realities of China’s aluminum sector and its downstream industries.
The absence of a unified definition for green (low-carbon) aluminum in international markets has weakened market signals and increased the risk of greenwashing, thereby slowing investment in near-zero-emission production technologies. To address this challenge, we are systematically reviewing existing green aluminum claims and certification schemes, with a focus on their performance in terms of transparency, comparability, and alignment with climate goals. At the same time, we are conducting in-depth interviews to better understand how different market participants perceive, demand, and evaluate low-carbon aluminum. These efforts aim to support the development and convergence of more robust and credible definitions and standards for low-carbon aluminum.
Cost and Economic Analysis
Conducting cost and economic analysis of low-carbon aluminum is critical to scaling procurement. By systematically analyzing cost structures across different production pathways, technology options, and market conditions, this helps clarify the premium over conventional aluminum and how it may evolve over time. This provides a robust basis for buyers to develop procurement strategies and make long-term commitments.We are currently undertaking research in this area, focusing on the cost components of low-carbon aluminum. By incorporating different regional contexts and technology scenarios, we assess its economic viability and future cost trajectories.
Value Chain Collaboration and Ecosystem Development
The low-carbon aluminum sector involves multiple stakeholders and key segments, including upstream raw material supply, downstream applications, as well as standards and certification systems, production processes, and equipment. Advancing decarbonization in the aluminum sector and scaling the adoption of low-carbon aluminum requires not only deeper collaboration across functions and value chain segments, but also continuous innovation in mechanisms and practices.
In collaboration with partners, we are advancing both research and practical initiatives. On one hand, we are identifying key challenges across the value chain—including raw material supply (such as recycled aluminum), capacity allocation, and alignment with downstream demand; the coordination between technologies, equipment, and product structures; as well as gaps in standards and certification systems. On the other hand, we are systematically reviewing and assessing existing
advanced collaboration models, while facilitating dialogue and cooperation among upstream and downstream companies through workshops and other engagements. At the same time, we are actively supporting the development of collaborative mechanisms and ecosystem building across the low-carbon aluminum value chain, exploring scalable and replicable approaches to support coordinated industry development and the low-carbon transition.
